Choose assumptions you can explain
The starting settings are a place to begin analysis. Retaining a default is still a choice. Record the country evidence, a sensitivity rationale or the fact that the choice remains provisional.
Country
Choose the economy and check its data mode, usable WEO window and coverage notice. Compare debt using the same institutional coverage, period and valuation as the loaded series. A government’s published debt figure can differ for legitimate definitional reasons. Resolve those differences before interpreting the result.
Demography variant
Medium, High and Low select UN population variants. Working-age population drives the employment proxy. Total population enters baseline spending. These are demographic scenarios, not an estimate of employment-policy effectiveness. Current uses UN WPP 2024 and Verified uses the workbook’s WPP 2022.
Three productivity settings
- Start: the starting parameter of the post-WEO convergence path.
- Long run: the growth rate that the path approaches.
- Turning point: timing in years after the WEO endpoint. A larger value shifts convergence later. The curve is asymmetric.
Inspect the historical record and WEO-implied residual, then assess whether the chosen trajectory is plausible. For Uganda Current, a timing setting of 15 is anchored to 2031, giving the calendar reference 2046. It is not a promise that growth reaches a particular halfway value then.
Two inflation settings
Start and long run set the post-WEO GDP-deflator growth path. They refer to the price measure used to turn real into nominal GDP, not necessarily the consumer-price inflation target. Supplied WEO values remain through the usable endpoint. The convergence formula determines the first modelled value.
Interest-rate approach and long-run real rate
| Approach | What happens after WEO |
|---|---|
| Nominal interest rate | Holds the rate at the final usable WEO anchor. |
| Interest-growth differential | Retains the normalized differential, (r−g)/(1+g), using lagged baseline growth in the projection rule. |
| Real interest rate | Combines the chosen real rate with prior-year inflation using the exact compound relationship. |
The long-run real-rate field is active only under the Real interest rate approach. Recording a value in an inactive field does not mean it affected the result. These approaches do not model a sovereign yield curve or changing debt portfolio.
Debt target and fiscal rule
With the rule on, the target enters the next-year spending adjustment when the workbook’s debt-level and direction conditions apply. With the rule off, the target does not constrain the debt path. Check the resulting spending and balance paths, including any debt floor. The Guide suggests examining the baseline without the rule, while the downloaded workbook contains saved settings with the rule on. Neither removes the need to state your own purpose.
Expenditure rigidity
This setting applies to climate scenarios. At 1, each year’s primary spending stays at the baseline currency amount despite the GDP change. At 0, it stays at the baseline share of GDP. A lower setting can reduce the debt gap by allowing spending to fall with GDP. Whether such adjustment is feasible or desirable needs country evidence.
A comparison using 1 and 0.6 can reveal this mechanism. The value 0.6 is an illustrative sensitivity, not an estimate for Uganda. Hold other settings and the climate scenario fixed, record the difference, then restore the intended headline assumption before exporting.
Record all twelve settings
The twelve fields are country, demography, three productivity settings, two inflation settings, interest-rate approach, long-run real rate, debt target, fiscal rule and expenditure rigidity. The data mode and calculation revision also belong with the run. Distinguish evidence-backed assumptions, retained starting values and sensitivity choices in the rationale notes.
Check the source: IMF User Guide, p. 10; official workbook, Dashboard and the Productivity, Inflation and Interest Rate worksheets.