References

Bellon, Mathieu, and Emanuele Massetti (2022). Economic Principles for Integrating Adaptation to Climate Change into Fiscal Policy. IMF Staff Climate Note 2022.001. Washington: International Monetary Fund. Provides the economic framework for how adaptation measures can be integrated into macro-fiscal analysis. Relevant for understanding why Q-CRAFT treats climate impacts as exogenous shocks.

Centorrino, Samuele, Emanuele Massetti, and Filippos Tagklis (2024). Climate Effects on GDP Growth: Updated Estimates of Kahn et al. (2021). Reference Guide. Fiscal Affairs Department, International Monetary Fund. The empirical dataset underlying Q-CRAFT’s six climate scenarios. Country-specific GDP impact estimates used directly by the tool.

di Castri, Simone, Arend Kulenkampff, Stefan Hohl, and Jermy Prenio (2019). The SupTech Generations. Financial Stability Institute Insights on Policy Implementation No. 19. Bank for International Settlements. Documents the evolution of technology-driven supervisory tools in central banks and financial authorities. The SupTech framework is the intellectual ancestor of the SovTech concept discussed in Part 3.

IMF (2025). Climate Public Investment Management Assessment (C-PIMA) Handbook. Washington: International Monetary Fund. The comprehensive framework for assessing how public investment management institutions account for climate change. C-PIMA assessments include a Q-CRAFT annex modeling climate-fiscal impacts.

Kahn, M. E., K. Mohaddes, R. N. C. Ng, M. H. Pesaran, M. Raissi, and J. C. Yang (2021). Long-Term Macroeconomic Effects of Climate Change: A Cross-Country Analysis. Energy Economics, 104, 105624/1-13. The foundational empirical study linking temperature deviations to GDP per capita growth. Estimates that unmitigated warming could reduce global GDP per capita by 7-13% by 2100. Q-CRAFT uses updated estimates from the FADCP Climate Dataset based on this methodology.

Tim, Tjeerd, and Jyoti Rahman (2024). User Guide for the Quantitative Climate Risk Assessment Fiscal Tool (Q-CRAFT). Fiscal Affairs Department, International Monetary Fund. Version 1.0, October 2024. The official methodology reference for the IMF’s Q-CRAFT Excel workbook. Covers all parameter definitions, data sources, scenario specifications, and the debt dynamics equation. This is the primary source for validating Q-CRAFT Explorer’s implementation.

United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2022). World Population Prospects 2022. The source of demographic projections (Medium, High, and Low variants) used in Q-CRAFT for population and labor force projections through 2100.

IMF (2024). World Economic Outlook Database, October 2024. Washington: International Monetary Fund. The source of macroeconomic and fiscal data (real GDP, nominal GDP, revenue, expenditure, debt, interest rates) for the WEO forecast period (through 2029) used in Q-CRAFT.